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Foreign Affairs.2015.n4

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At the heart of the challenge is coal, the most emissions-intensive fossil fuel. Asia is responsible for more than two-thirds of global coal consump- tion. And although demand for coal outside the region declined from 2008 to 2013, gains in Asia more than made up for the difference.
Foreign Affairs.2015.n4 - CfR - Seu destaque ou posição 1921-1923 | Adicionado: segunda-feira, 22 de junho de 2015 04:05:06
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China and India are the world?s first- and third-largest carbon dioxide emitters, respectively. (The United States is second.)
Foreign Affairs.2015.n4 - CfR - Seu destaque ou posição 1918-1919 | Adicionado: segunda-feira, 22 de junho de 2015 04:04:33
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CURBING COAL In the immediate aftermath of the un Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in 2009, U.S. and international efforts to tackle global warming were in disarray. Yet in the years since, the United States has surprised its critics and turned things around, reducing its total green- house gas emissions to 12 percent below their 2005 level as of 2012. A weak economy, improved fuel efficiency, and an increased reliance on renewable energy all contributed to the change. Critical, however, was a surge in the production of gas from shale formations. Shale gas, which yields roughlyhalf of coal?s carbon dioxide emissions when used to produce electricity, edged out coal on lower prices alone.
Foreign Affairs.2015.n4 - CfR - Seu destaque ou posição 1909-1914 | Adicionado: segunda-feira, 22 de junho de 2015 04:02:03
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Since negotiations over prices almost invariably include at least one state-owned company and since there is usually no obvious price for the parties to settle on, politics intrude. And because it is dif- ficult for buyers to switch suppliers during a political crisis, maintaining good relations with the biggest gas-producing countries, including the likes of Qatar and Russia, is paramount. But U.S. lng exports have the potential to change the rules of the game, particularlyin Asia, where the lion?s share of U.S. exports would likely flow. The U.S. natural gas market, not secret negotiations between states, will determine the price of natural gas exported from the United States. And U.S. exports won?t have so-called destination clauses: buyers of U.S. gas will be able to resell and deliver it to anyone. Since Asia is currently the most attractive destination for exports, U.S. gas could become a major part of the Asian energy mix. The hope is that the Asian gas market will then followthe U.S. example byincorporating transparent pricing and flexible trade. But that would take a lot more than a flood of American lng. The United States has created an opportunity; exploiting it will fall to Asian governments.
Foreign Affairs.2015.n4 - CfR - Seu destaque ou posição 1880-1888 | Adicionado: segunda-feira, 22 de junho de 2015 03:56:02
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If, for example, South Korea agrees to buy lng from Indonesia, South Korea can?t resell that gas elsewhere, even if another countrydesperatelyneeds it and is willing to paya premium. The same limitations that make gas markets opaque also make them political.
Foreign Affairs.2015.n4 - CfR - Seu destaque ou posição 1878-1880 | Adicionado: segunda-feira, 22 de junho de 2015 03:54:41
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The global natural gas market has always been rigid. Trade routes are usually fixed by existing gas pipelines, with seaborne lng playing a secondary role. The world?s largest producers typically strike longterm contracts with their customers, setting prices through carefully negotiated formulas that track the price of oil. Buyers have limited access to information about the wider market, and theyaren?t allowed to resell lng cargoes to anyone else.
Foreign Affairs.2015.n4 - CfR - Seu destaque ou posição 1875-1878 | Adicionado: segunda-feira, 22 de junho de 2015 03:54:07
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GOING NATURAL In addition to driving a domestic oil boom, U.S. energy companies are producing massive quantities of natural gas?so much, in fact, that the United States will soon become a significant lng exporter. That will be a major development that could revolutionize global energy markets, but here again, the ultimate impact will depend in large part on Asia?s response.
Foreign Affairs.2015.n4 - CfR - Seu destaque ou posição 1872-1875 | Adicionado: segunda-feira, 22 de junho de 2015 03:53:16
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But now the stakes are higher, with regional powers, principally China, more capable than ever of disrupting oil shipments to their adversaries. For now, at least, the United States will continue to provide security for oil shipments to its allies by maintaining its naval presence in the region. But even- tually, China will probably challenge this U.S.-dominated arrange- ment. Given Beijing?s newassertiveness in its foreign policy, its recent provocations?including its deployment of an oil rig to a disputed zone in the South China Sea last year, which led to a tense standoff with Vietnam?are onlya harbinger of things to come.
Foreign Affairs.2015.n4 - CfR - Seu destaque ou posição 1866-1871 | Adicionado: segunda-feira, 22 de junho de 2015 03:52:49
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the East Asian seas. These crowded waters include the Strait of Malacca, sandwiched between Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore; the South China Sea, bordering Brunei, China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam; and the East China Sea, touching China, Japan, and South Korea. They have already acted as the conduit for massive quantities of oil and gas.
Foreign Affairs.2015.n4 - CfR - Seu destaque ou posição 1863-1866 | Adicionado: segunda-feira, 22 de junho de 2015 03:51:53
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As U.S. output rises and consumption falls, American oil imports from the Middle East will drop. Many argue that this shift in the geography of oil could rewire global security.
Foreign Affairs.2015.n4 - CfR - Seu destaque ou posição 1858-1859 | Adicionado: segunda-feira, 22 de junho de 2015 03:49:11
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Had Asian demand kept to its historic trend, there would have been no massive glut and probably no earthshaking price collapse.
Foreign Affairs.2015.n4 - CfR - Seu destaque ou posição 1840-1841 | Adicionado: segunda-feira, 22 de junho de 2015 03:41:56
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In 2010, 2011, and 2012, Asian oil consumption rose by a million barrels a day or more. But in 2013, it grew by less than half a million barrels a day for the first time in 25 years during a period of relative financial and economic stability. Then, in 2014, consumption rose by only half a million barrels a day again.
Foreign Affairs.2015.n4 - CfR - Seu destaque ou posição 1838-1840 | Adicionado: segunda-feira, 22 de junho de 2015 03:41:39
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That explanation is accurate but incomplete. Asia?s slowing demand for oil was indispensable to the price crash.
Foreign Affairs.2015.n4 - CfR - Seu destaque ou posição 1837-1838 | Adicionado: segunda-feira, 22 de junho de 2015 03:41:18
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Consider the conventional wisdom about why oil prices plunged in 2014, from over $110 a barrel in June to less than $50 by January of this year. Most analysts blamed an unexpected surge in U.S. oil production, which had risen from an average of five million barrels a day in 2008 to more than nine million six years later, for flooding the global market and creating a surplus of supply.
Foreign Affairs.2015.n4 - CfR - Seu destaque ou posição 1833-1836 | Adicionado: segunda-feira, 22 de junho de 2015 03:40:57
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THE BIGGER PICTURE
Foreign Affairs.2015.n4 - CfR - Seu destaque ou posição 1833-1833 | Adicionado: segunda-feira, 22 de junho de 2015 03:40:41
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Whether rising U.S. exports transform natural gas markets will depend on decisions that Asian leaders make.
Foreign Affairs.2015.n4 - CfR - Seu destaque ou posição 1830-1830 | Adicionado: segunda-feira, 22 de junho de 2015 03:40:10
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The balance between Asian con- sumption and U.S. production?not one or the other?will be critical to setting energy prices for decades to come.
Foreign Affairs.2015.n4 - CfR - Seu destaque ou posição 1829-1830 | Adicionado: segunda-feira, 22 de junho de 2015 03:39:54
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As U.S. imports have fallen, foreign policy thinkers have suggested that Washington could rely far less on the Middle East. As U.S. firms have prepared to export liquefied natural gas (lng), market watchers have braced for a transformation of global natural gas markets and, as a result, geopolitics.
Foreign Affairs.2015.n4 - CfR - Seu destaque ou posição 1814-1816 | Adicionado: segunda-feira, 22 de junho de 2015 03:36:55
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And as U.S. energy companies have begun to capitalize on shale gas and renewable energy to tame their reliance on coal, scientists have hoped that Washington might finally take the lead in combating climate change.
Foreign Affairs.2015.n4 - CfR - Seu destaque ou posição 1816-1818 | Adicionado: segunda-feira, 22 de junho de 2015 03:36:32
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Go East, Young Oilman How Asia Is Shaping the Future of Global energy Michael Levi
Foreign Affairs.2015.n4 - CfR - Seu destaque ou posição 1811-1812 | Adicionado: segunda-feira, 22 de junho de 2015 03:35:34
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