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Yali Sassoon - Google+ - This post outlines my curent view on why attribution?

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Source: https://plus.google.com/106510540736941709264/posts/bYLj6avCQgQ
Yali Sassoon - Google+ - This post outlines my curent view on why attribution? - google.com - Your Highlight Location 312-313 | Added on Friday, 21 June 13 02:19:08
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http://conductrics.com/data-science-resources/
Yali Sassoon - Google+ - This post outlines my curent view on why attribution? - google.com - Your Highlight Location 263-263 | Added on Friday, 21 June 13 02:11:16
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http://conductrics.com/decision-attribution-for-multi-touch-optimization/
Yali Sassoon - Google+ - This post outlines my curent view on why attribution? - google.com - Your Highlight Location 254-255 | Added on Friday, 21 June 13 02:10:54
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chain is just an MDP with a fixed path.?
Yali Sassoon - Google+ - This post outlines my curent view on why attribution? - google.com - Your Highlight Location 230-230 | Added on Friday, 21 June 13 02:09:37
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just been reading a bit about Conductrics; makes a bit more sense now ?
Yali Sassoon - Google+ - This post outlines my curent view on why attribution? - google.com - Your Highlight Location 224-224 | Added on Friday, 21 June 13 02:09:18
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objective.The problem with thinking about it as a chain, is that there is no notion of a decision, or choice, to be made
Yali Sassoon - Google+ - This post outlines my curent view on why attribution? - google.com - Your Highlight Location 213-214 | Added on Friday, 21 June 13 02:08:50
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If what you really want is some sort of policy or controller that optimizes some objective, then I think it is best to think about the optimization as an optimal control/dynamic programing problem. So frame it as a Markov Decision process, rather than as a markov chain. That way at each state (touch point) you can discover the optimal choice. If you are worried about your conditional independence assumptions, you can ether use mega states, or some sort of function approximation for state.
Yali Sassoon - Google+ - This post outlines my curent view on why attribution? - google.com - Your Highlight Location 209-212 | Added on Friday, 21 June 13 02:08:39
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In the case of the attribution analysis, your approach credits channels that a user engages with prior to last click with driving more users to engage with the last click channel, prior to conversion. So a channel like PPC will result directly in some conversions, but also in shunting a % of users off to another channel (e.g. email), where they convert. You are therefore comparing a situation X users are acquired from email with one where X + ? users convert are acquired from email, because an additional ?? users were added to the email list as a result of the PPC campaign.
Yali Sassoon - Google+ - This post outlines my curent view on why attribution? - google.com - Your Highlight Location 166-169 | Added on Friday, 21 June 13 02:05:35
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The good thing about this is that if you have something like Snowplow you can get the data you need quite simply. There is a quick explanation at http://richardfergie.com/attribution/attributionexplanation.html.
Yali Sassoon - Google+ - This post outlines my curent view on why attribution? - google.com - Your Highlight Location 111-113 | Added on Friday, 21 June 13 02:01:05
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how does sophisticated ad targeting fit into your scheme? It is possible for a combination AB to have a better conversion rate than just A if advert B is only shown to people who are likely to convert.
Yali Sassoon - Google+ - This post outlines my curent view on why attribution? - google.com - Your Highlight Location 80-81 | Added on Friday, 21 June 13 01:58:07
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then engaging with a combination of the two appears to have a detrimental effect: maybe the messaging on the two channels conflict? Or maybe channel B is a voucher affiliate site, that shows ads for your product alongside better offers from a competitor? (So that users who come to redeem an offer for your product change their mind, having seen the better offer.)
Yali Sassoon - Google+ - This post outlines my curent view on why attribution? - google.com - Your Highlight Location 41-44 | Added on Friday, 21 June 13 01:55:06
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If conversion rates for people who engaged with A and B is higher than that for those who only engaged with A and only engaged with B, then the two channels appear to be working together constructively.
Yali Sassoon - Google+ - This post outlines my curent view on why attribution? - google.com - Your Highlight Location 35-37 | Added on Friday, 21 June 13 01:53:50
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(Tools like SnowPlow make it very easy to see exactly what channels each user has engaged with, prior to converting, over time.)
Yali Sassoon - Google+ - This post outlines my curent view on why attribution? - google.com - Your Highlight Location 22-23 | Added on Friday, 21 June 13 01:52:41
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