Welcome

My Quotes in The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction

397 Kuotes | 50 Books

Search:


Import Kindle clippings easily

Beta status: Bulk Kuote import!!!!

Log in & Sign in using:

The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction

Silver, Nate
As Nassim Nicholas Taleb detailed in The Black Swan and as Fama also discussed in his thesis, the movement of stock prices does not follow a gentle bell-curve distribution. Instead, stock-price movements are characterized by very occasional but very large swings up or down. The distribution of stock-market crashes can also be modeled fairly well by a power-law distribution, which is the same function that governs the frequency of earthquakes.
The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction - Silver, Nate Location 10154-10157 - Your Highlight on Page iv | Added on Tuesday, 16 July 13 02:48:39
Permalink Share Paper Clasic Modern +Kuotes
Jay Rosen, ?The View from Nowhere: Questions and Answers,? Jay Rosen?s Press Think, November 10, 2010. http://pressthink.org/2010/11/the-view-from-nowhere-questions-and-answers/
The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction - Silver, Nate Location 9891-9893 - Your Highlight on Page 514 | Added on Tuesday, 16 July 13 02:31:15
Permalink Share Paper Clasic Modern +Kuotes
This is just a personal reflection?not an empirical observation?but I am being somewhat literal about this point. When I was working on this book and came across a thorny problem that I couldn?t quite resolve, I found it much more productive to walk around, subjecting my brain to random inputs, than to stare at my computer screen or sit in a coffee shop. One of the advantages of living in New York is that it offers 24/7 access to the spontaneous behavior of eight million human beings who might jog your mind or your memory.
The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction - Silver, Nate Location 9893-9897 - Your Highlight on Page 514 | Added on Tuesday, 16 July 13 02:30:39
Permalink Share Paper Clasic Modern +Kuotes
Joel Mokyr, The Gifts of Athena: Historical Origins of the Knowledge Economy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, Kindle Edition), location 160?162.
The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction - Silver, Nate Location 9889-9890 - Your Highlight on Page 514 | Added on Tuesday, 16 July 13 02:30:16
Permalink Share Paper Clasic Modern +Kuotes
Tomasso Poggio and Federico Girosi, ?A Theory of Networks for Approximation and Learning,? Massachusetts Institute of Technology Artificial Intelligence Laboratory and Center for Biological Information Processing, Whitaker College, A.I. Memo 1140, C.B.I.P. Paper 31, July 1989. http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA212359
The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction - Silver, Nate Location 9884-9886 - Your Highlight on Page 514 | Added on Tuesday, 16 July 13 02:29:28
Permalink Share Paper Clasic Modern +Kuotes
Sarah Lichtenstein and Baruch Fischhoff, ?Training for Calibration,? prepared for U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, ARI Technical Report TR-78-A32; November 1978. http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA069703
The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction - Silver, Nate Location 9878-9881 - Your Highlight on Page 514 | Added on Tuesday, 16 July 13 02:29:10
Permalink Share Paper Clasic Modern +Kuotes
Christopher J. Gill, Lora Sabin and Christopher H. Schmidt, ?Why Clinicians Are Natural Bayesians,? British Medical Journal, vol. 330; May 7, 2005. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC557240/
The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction - Silver, Nate Location 9881-9883 - Your Highlight on Page 514 | Added on Tuesday, 16 July 13 02:29:02
Permalink Share Paper Clasic Modern +Kuotes
Thomas C. Peterson, William M. Connolley, and John Fleck, ?The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus,? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, September 2008. http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/Myth-1970-Global-Cooling-BAMS-2008.pdf
The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction - Silver, Nate Location 9596-9598 - Your Highlight on Page 508 | Added on Tuesday, 16 July 13 02:19:43
Permalink Share Paper Clasic Modern +Kuotes
Nate Silver, ?Despite Protests, Some Reason for Optimism in Copenhagen,? FiveThirtyEight.com, December 9, 2009. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/12/despite-protests-some-reasons-for.html.
The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction - Silver, Nate Location 9451-9454 - Your Highlight on Page 504 | Added on Tuesday, 16 July 13 02:16:59
Permalink Share Paper Clasic Modern +Kuotes
Specifically, a linear regression of the sign of that day?s stock price (1 indicating a positive movement and ?1 indicating a negative movement) on the previous day?s stock price. The trend is also highly statistically significant if you take a regression of the percentage change in the stock price on the previous day?s percentage change. Note, however, that standard forms of regression analysis assume that errors are normally distributed, whereas the stock market does not obey a normal distribution. Economists like Fama think this is a problem when applying standard statistical tests to analyze patterns in stock prices.
The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction - Silver, Nate Location 9188-9192 - Your Highlight on Page 498 | Added on Tuesday, 16 July 13 02:12:19
Permalink Share Paper Clasic Modern +Kuotes
Contrast this with a sport like tennis, where the structure of the game is such that even modest differences in skill level manifest themselves very quickly. The very best players in the world, like Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, win only about 55 percent of the points they play?barely more than half. However, hundreds of points are played over the course of a single match, while baseball players might get just four or five at-bats. It would be silly to conclude that Nadal is better at tennis than Josh Hamilton is at baseball. But Nadal almost always wins while Hamilton has plenty of nights when he goes 0-for-4. In tennis, you reach the long run much more quickly.
The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction - Silver, Nate Location 9069-9074 - Your Highlight on Page 496 | Added on Tuesday, 16 July 13 02:09:30
Permalink Share Paper Clasic Modern +Kuotes
David H. Krantz, ?The Null Hypothesis Testing Controversy in Psychology,? Journal of the American Statistical Association, 44, no. 448 (December 1999). http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/2669949?uid=3739832&uid=2&uid=4&uid=3739256&sid=47698905120317.
The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction - Silver, Nate Location 8888-8891 - Your Highlight on Page 492 | Added on Tuesday, 16 July 13 02:06:29
Permalink Share Paper Clasic Modern +Kuotes
William M. Briggs, ?It Is Time to Stop Teaching Frequentism to Non-Statisticians,? arXiv.org, January 13, 2012. http://arxiv.org/pdf/1201.2590.pdf
The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction - Silver, Nate Location 8886-8888 - Your Highlight on Page 492 | Added on Tuesday, 16 July 13 02:06:22
Permalink Share Paper Clasic Modern +Kuotes
David R. Anderson, Kenneth P. Burnham, and William L. Thompson, ?Null Hypothesis Testing: Problems, Prevalence, and an Alternative,? Journal of Wildlife Management, 64, 4 (2000), pp. 912?923. http://cat.inist.fr/%3FaModele%3DafficheN%26cpsidt%3D792848.
The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction - Silver, Nate Location 8883-8885 - Your Highlight on Page 492 | Added on Tuesday, 16 July 13 02:06:14
Permalink Share Paper Clasic Modern +Kuotes
Jeff Gill, ?The Insignificance of Null Hypothesis Significance Testing,? Political Research Quarterly, 52, 3 (September 1999), pp. 647?674. http://www.artsci.wustl.edu/~jgill/papers/hypo.pdf
The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction - Silver, Nate Location 8881-8883 - Your Highlight on Page 492 | Added on Tuesday, 16 July 13 02:05:10
Permalink Share Paper Clasic Modern +Kuotes
Although there are several different formulations of the steps in the scientific method, this version is mostly drawn from ?APPENDIX E: Introduction to the Scientific Method,? University of Rochester. http://teacher.pas.rochester.edu/phy_labs/appendixe/appendixe.html.
The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction - Silver, Nate Location 8874-8877 - Your Highlight on Page 492 | Added on Tuesday, 16 July 13 02:04:54
Permalink Share Paper Clasic Modern +Kuotes
Andrew Gelman and Cosma Tohilla Shalizi, ?Philosophy and the Practice of Bayesian Statistics,? British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology, pp. 1?31, January 11, 2012. http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/philosophy.pdf
The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction - Silver, Nate Location 8871-8874 - Your Highlight on Page 492 | Added on Tuesday, 16 July 13 02:04:45
Permalink Share Paper Clasic Modern +Kuotes
Raymond S. Nickerson, ?Null Hypothesis Significance Testing: A Review of an Old and Continuing Controversy,? Psychological Methods, 5, 2 (2000), pp. 241?301. http://203.64.159.11/richman/plogxx/gallery/17/%E9%AB%98%E7%B5%B1%E5%A0%B1%E5%91%8A.pdf.
The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction - Silver, Nate Location 8868-8871 - Your Highlight on Page 491 | Added on Tuesday, 16 July 13 02:04:37
Permalink Share Paper Clasic Modern +Kuotes
Jeremy Kahn, ?The Man Who Would Have Us Bet on Terrorism?Not to Mention Discard Democracy and Cryogenically Freeze Our Heads?May Have a Point (About the Betting, We Mean),? Fortune magazine via CNN Money, September 15, 2003.
The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction - Silver, Nate Location 8478-8480 - Your Highlight on Page 483 | Added on Monday, 15 July 13 21:04:11
Permalink Share Paper Clasic Modern +Kuotes
Glenn Gunzelmann and Kevin A. Gluck, ?Knowledge Tracing for Complex Training Applications: Beyond Bayesian Mastery Estimates,? Air Force Research Laboratory,; Proceedings of the Thirteenth Conference on Behavior Representation in Modeling and Simulation, 2004, pp. 383?84. http://act-r.psy.cmu.edu/papers/710/gunzelmann_gluck-2004.pdf
The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction - Silver, Nate Location 9875-9878 - Your Highlight on Page 514 | Added on Monday, 15 July 13 03:31:50
Permalink Share Paper Clasic Modern +Kuotes

's Books


Coleccin De Chistes De Todo Tipo 280 Kuotes educaciontecnicaproductivaenboliviapieb 2011 138 Kuotes Microsoft Word - EEDU_Fenstermacher-Soltis_3_Unidad_1.doc Desconocido 36 Kuotes De las culturas juveniles al estilo Feixa Pampols, Carles 38 Kuotes Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work, and Think Viktor Mayer-Schonberger and Kenneth Cukier 176 Kuotes Oficiais jul 184 Kuotes NOTAS JAN-JUN 2015 MRE NOTAS 119 Kuotes Bolaño Roberto - Los Detectives Salvajes USER 90 Kuotes CastroGomezSantiago-ElGiroDecolonial 33 Kuotes 50713716-Diagnostico-de-Genero-en-Comunidades-Guaranies-del-Chaco-Boliviano 64 Kuotes Give and Take: A Revolutionary Approach to Success Adam M. Grant Ph.D. 38 Kuotes La quinua: cultivo milenario para contribuir a la seguridad alimentaria mundial FAO 58 Kuotes Manual do Candidato - História do Brasil João Daniel Lima de Almeida 110 Kuotes La tabla rasa Pinker, Steven 57 Kuotes Kürk Mantolu Madonna Sabahattin Ali 43 Kuotes The 4-Hour Workweek, Expanded and Updated: Escape 9-5, Live Anywhere, and Join the New Rich Timothy Ferriss 191 Kuotes LAS ESTRUCTURAS SOCIALES DE LA ECONOMÍA KV 114 Kuotes Tema 5- Procesos de evangelización pastoral especial 157 Kuotes VIVIR BIEN PARADIGMA NO CAPITALISTA 58 Kuotes Heater - A brief history of citizenship 3 42 Kuotes Fifty Shades Darker James, E L 31 Kuotes ARQUEOLOGA DE LA SOCIOLOGA AMBIENTAL x 36 Kuotes Weston_Anthony - Las Claves de la Argumentacion editor@eduteka.org 49 Kuotes Microsoft Word - ENTRE PARENTESIS.doc VCC 52 Kuotes GTZ NORTE POTOSI Carlos Balderrama Mariscal 82 Kuotes Photo Inspiration: Secrets Behind Stunning Images Russell, Dianne 41 Kuotes Instapaper: Saturday, Apr. 27 Instapaper 31 Kuotes Técnicas del guión para cine y televisión Eugene Vale 396 Kuotes Redalyc.Antropología y Derechos Humanos: multiculturalismo, retos y resignificaciones Alejandro BAER Marie José DEVILLARD 46 Kuotes You Are Your Own Gym: The Bible of Bodyweight Exercises Lauren, Mark 77 Kuotes Good Calories, Bad Calories Gary Taubes 45 Kuotes Christifideles Laici 30 de diciembre de 1988 | Juan Pablo II 106 Kuotes 47_GarciaSanchez NUEVA GESTIÓN PÚBLICA 46 Kuotes How Children Succeed: Grit, Curiosity, and the Hidden Power of Character Paul Tough 67 Kuotes Kuote Shaikh Reza 302 Kuotes ¿Comer de nuestra tierra? Estudios de caso sobre tierra y producción de alimentos en Bolivia Fundación TIERRA 46 Kuotes DESARROLLA UNA MENTE PRODIGIOSA: 44 Psicologia Y Autoayuda 66 Kuotes Arte y Archivo. 1920-2010. Genealogías, Tipologías y Discontinuidades Guash, Anna Maria 67 Kuotes Kuote Coord. Cómputo 302 Kuotes ETICA Y LIDERAZGO EMPRESARIAL GBosch 32 Kuotes The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined Steven Pinker 33 Kuotes Mirza. oportunidades de expansión parteIIIcap3 54 Kuotes KindlePB2 summa 145 Kuotes Web Analytics: An Hour a Day Kaushik, Avinash 997 Kuotes Essays Penguin Modern Classics 132 Kuotes Bourdieu Pierre - Sociología y Cultura - ISBN 968-419-852-6 Daniel 302 Kuotes Hacia un estado del arte sobre sentidos y prácticas políticas juveniles en Colombia Galindo Ramírez, Liliana 34 Kuotes Inferno Dan Brown 35 Kuotes NLP NLP Comprehensive 72 Kuotes La protección social de cara al futuro: Acceso, financiamiento y solidaridad CEPAL 64 Kuotes