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[The article Mr. Munger is referring to is called "On Teaching Professional Judgment" by Paul Brest and Linda Krieger. It was published in the July 1994 edition of the Washington Law Review.]
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5. Fifth: The final question is: If the thought system indicated by this list of psychological tendencies has great value not recognized and employed, what should the educational system do about it?
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Charlie,? she said, ?What one word accounts for your remarkable success in life?? And I knew I was being manipulated and that she?d done this before, and I just loved it. I mean I never see this woman without a little lift in my spirits.
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4. Four: What special knowledge problems lie buried in the thought system indicated by the list?
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Nine: the great example of Charles Darwin is he avoided confirmation bias. Darwin probably changed my life because I?m a biography nut, and when I found out the way he always paid extra attention to the disconfirming evidence and all these little psychological tricks. I also found out that he wasn?t very smart by the ordinary standards of human acuity, yet there he is buried in Westminster Abbey. That?s not where I?m going, I?ll tell you. And I said, ?My God, here?s a guy that, by all objective evidence, is not nearly as smart as I am and he?s in Westminster Abbey? He must have tricks I should learn.? And I started wearing little hair shirts like Darwin to try and train myself out of these subconscious psychological tendencies that cause so many errors. It didn?t work perfectly, as you can tell from listening to this talk, but it would?ve been even worse if I hadn?t done what I did. And you can know these psychological tendencies and avoid being the patsy of all the people that are trying to manipulate you to your disadvantage, like Sam Walton.
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Eight: the use of post-mortems at Johnson & Johnson. At most corporations if you make an acquisition and it turns out to be a disaster, all the paperwork and presentations that caused the dumb acquisition to be made are quickly forgotten. You?ve got denial, you?ve got everything in the world. You?ve got Pavlovian association tendency. Nobody even wants to even be associated with the damned thing or even mention it. At Johnson & Johnson, they make everybody revisit their old acquisitions and wade through the presentations. That is a very smart thing to do. And by the way, I do the same thing routinely.
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Seven: the Harvard Business School?s emphasis on decision trees. When I was young and foolish I used to laugh at the Harvard Business School. I said, ?They?re teaching 28-year-old people that high school algebra works in real life?? We?re talking about elementary probability. But later I wised up and I realized that it was very important that they do that, and better late than never.
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Six: the use of granny?s rule. I love this. One of the psychologists who works for the Center gets paid a fortune running around America, and he teaches executives to manipulate themselves. Now granny?s rule is you don?t get the ice cream unless you eat your carrots. Well granny was a very wise woman. That is a very good system. And so this guy, a very eminent psychologist, he runs around the country telling executives to organize their day so they force themselves to do what?s unpleasant and important by doing that first, and then rewarding themselves with something they really like doing. He is profoundly correct.
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Five: The rules of the U.S. Constitutional Convention: totally secret, no vote until the whole vote, then just one vote on the whole Constitution. Very clever psychological rules, and if they had a different procedure, everybody would?ve been pushed into a corner by his own pronouncements and his own oratory and his own? And no recorded votes until the last one. And they got it through by a whisker with those wise rules. We wouldn?t have had the Constitution if our forefathers hadn?t been so psychologically acute. And look at the crowd we got now.
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Four: Clinical training in medical schools: here?s a profoundly correct way of understanding psychology. The standard practice is watch one, do one, teach one. Boy does that pound in what you want pounded in. Again, the consistency and commitment tendency. And that is a profoundly correct way to teach clinical medicine.
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Three: The system of Alcoholics Anonymous, that?s certainly a constructive use of somebody understanding psychological tendencies. I think they just wandered into it, as a matter of fact, so you can regard it as kind of an evolutionary outcome. But just because they?ve wandered into it doesn?t mean you can?t invent its equivalent when you need it for a good purpose.
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Two: the use of simulators in pilot training. Here, again, abilities attenuate with disuse. Well the simulator is God?s gift because you can keep them fresh.
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One: Karl Braun?s communication practices. He designed oil refineries with spectacular skill and integrity. He had a very simple rule. Remember I said, ?Why is it important?? You got fired in the Braun company. You had to have five Ws. You had to tell Who, What you wanted to do, Where and When, and you had to tell him Why. And if you wrote a communication and left out the Why you got fired, because Braun knew it?s complicated building an oil refinery. It can blow up?all kinds of things happen. And he knew that his communication system worked better if you always told him why. That?s a simple discipline, and boy does it work.
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3. Three: What good, in the practical world, is the thought system indicated by the list? Isn?t practical benefit prevented because these psychological tendencies are programmed into the human mind by broad evolution so we can?t get rid of them? [By] broad evolution, I mean the combination of genetic and cultural evolution, but mostly genetic.
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2. The second question: Isn?t this list of standard psychological tendencies improperly tautological compared with the system of Euclid? That is, aren?t there overlaps? And can?t some items on the list be derived from combinations of other items? The answer to that is, plainly, yes.
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the typical American board of directors. They only act, again the power of incentives, they only act when it gets so bad it starts making them look foolish, or threatening legal liability to them. That?s Munger?s rule. I mean there are occasional things that don?t follow Munger?s rule, but by and large the board of directors is a very ineffective corrector if the top guy is a little nuts, which, of course, frequently happens.
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So McDonald-Douglas schedules one of these things in a hangar, and they make the hangar dark and the concrete floor is 25 feet down, and they?ve got these little rubber chutes, and they?ve got all these old people, and they ring the bell and they all rush out, and in the morning, when the first test is done, they create, I don?t know, 20 terrible injuries when people go off to hospitals, and of course they scheduled another one for the afternoon. By the way they didn?t read[?] the time schedule either, in addition to causing all the injuries. Well?so what do they do? They do it again in the afternoon. Now they create 20 more injuries and one case of a severed spinal column with permanent, unfixable paralysis. These are engineers, these are brilliant people, this is thought over through in a big bureaucracy. Again, it?s a combination of [psychological tendencies]: authorities told you to do it. He told you to make it realistic. You?ve decided to do it. You?d decided to do it twice. Incentive-caused bias. If you pass you save a lot of money. You?ve got to jump this hurdle before you can sell your new airliner. Again, three, four, five of these things work together and it turns human brains into mush.
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The Milgrim experiment. It?s been widely interpreted as mere obedience, but the truth of the matter is that the experimenter who got the students to give the heavy shocks in Milgrim, he explained why. It was a false explanation. ?We need this to look for scientific truth,? and so on. That greatly changed the behavior of the people. And number two, he worked them up: tiny shock, a little larger, a little larger. So commitment and consistency tendency and the contrast principle were both working in favor of this behavior. So again, it?s four different psychological tendencies.
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The system of Alcoholics Anonymous: a 50% no-drinking rate outcome when everything else fails? It?s a very clever system that uses four or five psychological systems at once toward, I might say, a very good end.
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Moonie [as in Sun Myung Moon and the Unification Church] conversion methods: boy do they work. He just combines four or five of these things together.
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Tupperware parties. Tupperware?s now made billions of dollars out of a few manipulative psychological tricks. It was so schlocky that directors of Justin Dart?s company resigned when he crammed it down his board?s throat. And he was totally right, by the way, judged by economic outcomes.
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What happens when these standard psychological tendencies combine? What happens when the situation, or the artful manipulation of man, causes several of these tendencies to operate on a person toward the same end at the same time?
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Well, in a natural setting, there is no nectar where they?re all straight up, and the poor honeybee doesn?t have a genetic program that is adequate to handle what he now has to communicate. And you?d think the honeybee would come back to the hive and slink into a corner, but he doesn?t. He comes into the hive and does this incoherent dance, and all my life I?ve been dealing with the human equivalent of that honeybee.
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22. And then I?ve got development and organizational confusion from say-something syndrome.
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21. Then we?ve got other common mental illnesses and declines, temporary and permanent, including the tendency to lose ability through disuse.
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Here, my favorite example is the great Pavlov. He had all these dogs in cages, which had all been conditioned into changed behaviors, and the great Leningrad flood came and it just went right up and the dog?s in a cage. And the dog had as much stress as you can imagine a dog ever having. And the water receded in time to save some of the dogs, and Pavlov noted that they?d had a total reversal of their conditioned personality. And being the great scientist he was, he spent the rest of his life giving nervous breakdowns to dogs, and he learned a helluva lot that I regard as very interesting. I have never known any Freudian analyst who knew anything about the last work of Pavlov, and I?ve never met a lawyer who understood that what Pavlov found out with those dogs had anything to do with programming and de-programming and cults and so forth. I mean the amount of elementary psychological ignorance that is out there in high levels is very significant[?].
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20. Stress-induced mental changes, small and large, temporary and permanent.
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But don?t you do that. It?s not very hard to do, you know, just to remember that ?Why?? is very important.
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And now we get to Feuerstein, who was the general counsel with Salomon when Gutfreund made his big error, and Feuerstein knew better. He told Gutfreund, ?You have to report this as a matter of morality and prudent business judgment.? He said, ?It?s probably not illegal, there?s probably no legal duty to do it, but you have to do it as a matter of prudent conduct and proper dealing with your main customer.? He said that to Gutfreund on at least two or three occasions. And he stopped. And, of course, the persuasion failed, and when Gutfreund went down, Feuerstein went with him. It ruined a considerable part of Feuerstein?s life. Well Feuerstein, [who] was a member of the Harvard Law Review, made an elementary psychological mistake. You want to persuade somebody, you really tell them why. And what did we learn in lesson one? Incentives really matter? Vivid evidence really works? He should?ve told Gutfreund, ?You?re likely to ruin your life and disgrace your family and lose your money.? And is Mozer worth this? I know both men. That would?ve worked. So Feuerstein flunked elementary psychology, this very sophisticated, brilliant lawyer.
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19. Other normal limitations of sensation, memory, cognition and knowledge.
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And now we get to Feuerstein, who was the general counsel with Salomon when Gutfreund made his big error, and Feuerstein knew better. He told Gutfreund, ?You have to report this as a matter of morality and prudent business judgment.? He said, ?It?s probably not illegal, there?s probably no legal duty to do it, but you have to do it as a matter of prudent conduct and proper dealing with your main customer.? He said that to Gutfreund on at least two or three occasions. And he stopped. And, of course, the persuasion failed, and when Gutfreund went down, Feuerstein went with him. It ruined a considerable part of Feuerstein?s life. Well Feuerstein, [who] was a member of the Harvard Law Review, made an elementary psychological mistake. You want to persuade somebody, you really tell them why. And what did we learn in lesson one? Incentives really matter? Vivid evidence really works? He should?ve told Gutfreund, ?You?re likely to ruin your life and disgrace your family and lose your money.? And is Mozer worth this? I know both men. That would?ve worked. So Feuerstein flunked elementary psychology, this very sophisticated, brilliant lawyer. But don?t you do that. It?s not very hard to do, you know, just to remember that ?Why?? is very important.
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Well we all know people who?ve flunked, and they try and memorize and they try and spout back and they just?it doesn?t work. The brain doesn?t work that way. You?ve got to array facts on the theory structures answering the question ?Why?? If you don?t do that, you just cannot handle the world.
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18. Twenty-two [he means 18]: Mental confusion caused by information not arrayed in the mind and theory structures, creating sound generalizations developed in response to the question ?Why?? Also, mis-influence from information that apparently but not really answers the question ?Why?? Also, failure to obtain deserved influence caused by not properly explaining why.
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17. Now we come to bias from over-influence by extra-vivid evidence.
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if they?re just stealing from you and you get rid of them, I don?t think you need the last ounce of vengeance. In fact I don?t think you need any vengeance. I don?t think vengeance is much good.
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You find an isolated example of a little old lady in the See?s Candy Company, one of our subsidiaries, getting into the till. And what does she say? ?I never did it before, I?ll never do it again. This is going to ruin my life. Please help me.? And you know her children and her friends, and she?d been around 30 years and standing behind the candy counter with swollen ankles. When you?re an old lady it isn?t that glorious a life. And you?re rich and powerful and there she is: ?I never did it before, I?ll never do it again.? Well how likely is it that she never did it before? If you?re going to catch 10 embezzlements a year, what are the chances that any one of them -- applying what Tversky and Kahneman called baseline information -- will be somebody who only did it this once? And the people who have done it before and are going to do it again, what are they all going to say? Well in the history of the See?s Candy Company they always say, ?I never did it before, and I?m never going to do it again.? And we cashier them. It would be evil not to, because terrible behavior spreads.
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When the brain should be using the simple probability mathematics of Fermat and Pascal applied to all reasonably obtainable and correctly weighted items of information that are of value in predicting outcomes, the right way to think is the way Zeckhauser plays bridge.
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16. Seventeen [he means 16]: bias from the non-mathematical nature of the human brain in its natural state as it deal with probabilities employing crude heuristics, and is often misled by mere contrast, a tendency to overweigh conveniently available information and other psychologically misrouted thinking tendencies on this list.
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I have never seen a management consultant?s report in my long life that didn?t end with the following paragraph: "What this situation really needs is more management consulting." Never once. I always turn to the last page.
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he believes his own idea structures will cure cancer, and he believes that the demons that he?s the guardian against are the biggest demons and the most important ones, and in fact they may be very small demons compared to the demons that you face. So you?re getting your advice in this world from your paid advisor with this huge load of ghastly bias.
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