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How to make better decisions

startuplessonslearned.com
We call that same idea in our book a ?tripwire??the notion that there?s something in the future that will snap us awake and force us to re-consider the decisions we?re making. The tripwire might be a metric we?re following, or a budget, or a date. So I?m 100% with you on that one.
How to make better decisions - startuplessonslearned.com - Your Highlight Location 584-586 | Added on Monday, 23 September 13 01:07:24
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since you know you?re going to have to pivot, you?re gonna fail, you?re gonna make mistakes, you should schedule the pivot meeting in advance. Say, start the company today but in six weeks from today, let?s have a meeting to see if our strategy is still working, so that way it?s not a crisis that we?re having this meeting and in fact it?s perfectly normal. Is that a psychologically-sound recommendation?
How to make better decisions - startuplessonslearned.com - Your Highlight Location 580-583 | Added on Monday, 23 September 13 01:06:55
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The vast majority of decisions are nothing more than hypotheses. It?s: I think this going to be right job for me, the right place to live. We?ve got to stop treating our decisions as permanent and instead think of them as provisional. And of course, if you?re willing to make that leap, then it demands something of us. It means that when you make a decision, you?ve got to think about the circumstances under which you?d reconsider. What could you learn in 6 months that would convince you to go a different direction?or, conversely, convince you that it?s a great decision and worth doubling-down on?
How to make better decisions - startuplessonslearned.com - Your Highlight Location 575-579 | Added on Monday, 23 September 13 01:06:25
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Rather than making a prediction, treating the future like it?s a single point, we need to get people to stretch their expectations and begin, as much as possible, to start planning for the spectrum of possible outcomes. That?s preparing to be wrong. We need to start treating our decisions as predictions that could be right or wrong, rather than as a firm conclusion.
How to make better decisions - startuplessonslearned.com - Your Highlight Location 567-569 | Added on Monday, 23 September 13 01:04:30
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doesn?t mean that we should be pessimistic or bummed out. What it means is that we need to do a better job of stretching our sense of how the future might unfold. We need to consider positive and negative outcomes. Our minds often know more than we think they do.
How to make better decisions - startuplessonslearned.com - Your Highlight Location 554-556 | Added on Monday, 23 September 13 01:02:49
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how to think through a decision: WRAP, which stands for: Widen your options Reality-test your assumptions Attain distance before deciding, and Prepare to be wrong.
How to make better decisions - startuplessonslearned.com - Your Highlight Location 546-548 | Added on Monday, 23 September 13 01:00:26
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a lot of us believe in a methodology called ?net promoter score? in which you ask customers to recommend a product to a friend or colleague, and I?ve always thought of that as exploiting a bug in human psychology. It doesn?t actually predict peoples? referral behavior very well?it actually predicts how much they like your product in the first place. So they?re projecting themselves on to their friends and colleagues and telling you what they feel. But if you ask them directly, they won?t tell you.
How to make better decisions - startuplessonslearned.com - Your Highlight Location 541-545 | Added on Monday, 23 September 13 00:59:46
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project it onto somebody else. DH: Exactly. I know that sounds simple. But I?ve had conversations with people who have reported agonizing about a decision for months, and then I?ve asked that question and they?ve had an answer in ten seconds. There?s something profound that happens when we create a little bit of distance by shifting perspectives.
How to make better decisions - startuplessonslearned.com - Your Highlight Location 538-541 | Added on Monday, 23 September 13 00:58:59
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What would you tell your best friend to do in this situation?
How to make better decisions - startuplessonslearned.com - Your Highlight Location 538-538 | Added on Monday, 23 September 13 00:58:44
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So once you?ve got two or three options, then the question is: Have you gathered enough information from the world to tip you one way or another? And this is where Scott Cook provides a good example. Just run a test of some kind. If you have two or three good options, what kind of experiments can you run to get good, determinative information? Alternatively, you might make a values-based decision. You can ask yourself: which option is truest to your core priority?
How to make better decisions - startuplessonslearned.com - Your Highlight Location 534-537 | Added on Monday, 23 September 13 00:58:38
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two gating factors. One is: have you considered enough options? One trap that people fall into is that they make ?whether or not? decisions. They consider one alternative really seriously and the decision is ?do we do that or not?? That?s a big problem, because adding incremental options really increases your chances for success. So one rule of thumb we talk about in the book is to fall in love twice?make sure you have at least two legitimate options before making your choice. (Don?t apply this to romantic decisions, though.) So, if you?re hiring someone, keep taking applications until you have at least two really good applicants. If you?re house shopping, make sure you keep looking until you have two really good options that you?d feel comfortable living in. That helps stop you from falling into the trap of rationalizing away the faults of your options.
How to make better decisions - startuplessonslearned.com - Your Highlight Location 528-534 | Added on Monday, 23 September 13 00:58:01
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how do you know when you?ve collected enough information to make a good decision?
How to make better decisions - startuplessonslearned.com - Your Highlight Location 527-528 | Added on Monday, 23 September 13 00:57:33
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one of the fundamental principles of decision making is that good decisions happen when we get out of our head and start taking information from the real world seriously.
How to make better decisions - startuplessonslearned.com - Your Highlight Location 525-526 | Added on Monday, 23 September 13 00:57:19
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Decisive: How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work
How to make better decisions - startuplessonslearned.com - Your Highlight Location 457-457 | Added on Sunday, 22 September 13 15:55:43
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There are all these biases that were pulling PayPal toward the model that they started with. One of them is called mere exposure, which is the idea that we get more comfortable with things that we are more familiar with. The PayPal team grew up as a Palm Pilot company. The Palm Pilot was in their bones. It felt more familiar, more natural. The second bias is loss-aversion. Losses are more painful to us than gains are pleasurable. So if you put yourself in the PayPal founders? shoes, you start thinking ?Yes, we could shift. Yes, there does seem to be a lot of enthusiasm on the web?but, what if we blow it? What if PalmPilots take over the world, and we threw away our advantage? What idiots we?ll look like to sacrifice our early lead for the sake of helping a bunch of flaky eBay sellers.? That IS a tough decision. And these forces are what complicate decisions like this, as you said, for entrepreneurs.
How to make better decisions - startuplessonslearned.com - Your Highlight Location 498-504 | Added on Sunday, 22 September 13 15:55:26
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the firms that considered more options were actually faster for three basic reasons. The first is: When you consider multiple things simultaneously, you?re actually learning a lot about the shape of the problem?the important factors involved?and that knowledge makes you more confident and quicker to decide. The second piece is: When you consider multiple options, it depoliticizes the choice. When you have one option on the table, and the choice is ?do we do this or not,? you get two camps fighting each other. You spend a lot of time bickering and arguing. Versus when you have multiple options, you can approach them more objectively and consider their strengths and weaknesses a bit more honestly. The third piece is maybe the most obvious: when you consider multiple options, you have a built-in fallback. So, if you go with Option A and for some reason it fizzles out, you?ve already got Option B teed up.
How to make better decisions - startuplessonslearned.com - Your Highlight Location 474-480 | Added on Sunday, 22 September 13 15:53:41
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we talk about a similar concept in Decisive: the importance of ?multitracking? your options when you have a difficult decision. We were inspired to do it ourselves because we?d just come across the research, which says that if you consider multiple options at once, it can yield better decisions. The reason is that you?re learning about multiple alternatives, along with their strengths and weaknesses, simultaneously. And not only that, but some researchers have found that it even speeds up your decision-making.
How to make better decisions - startuplessonslearned.com - Your Highlight Location 465-470 | Added on Sunday, 22 September 13 15:53:08
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We also had one very specific tip from Adam Goldstein of travel site Hipmunk: install live chat on your site. Live chat gets real-time feedback and accurate information about where customers are getting hung up. ?People don?t email to say that something is tricky to use,? Adam pointed out.
How to make better decisions - startuplessonslearned.com - Your Highlight Location 36-38 | Added on Saturday, 21 September 13 10:09:37
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