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The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

Frans Johansson
we are truly reluctant to actively court randomness in our lives. We have created a society in which we are taught the great virtues of planning and predictability. Increasingly, the world will not let us, yet increasingly, success comes unexpectedly. How do we reconcile these two facts?that we hate randomness, and yet need it to succeed? Create a focused plan to court randomness.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 3250-53 - Highlight on Page 214 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 08:15 PM
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If we find something that works, particularly something that seems to be swept up by complex forces, we need to double down. In this context, doubling down means that you invest time, money, reputation, or other resources into the project with the expectation that it will not only continue to be successful but in fact go big. You are, in other words, finally making some sort of prediction.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 3125-28 - Highlight on Page 205 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 08:08 PM
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5. Double Down
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 3125 - Highlight on Page 205 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 08:07 PM
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4. Spot Momentum and Intensity
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 3077 - Highlight on Page 202 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 08:05 PM
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Because it is impossible to fully control the events that occur around us, we must use complex forces to our advantage. The constant reshuffling of actions, desires, and consequences causes windows of opportunity to open and close unexpectedly. These windows provide a pathway to breakthrough success. They may not be open for long, however, so we need to be prepared to make a quick decision before complex forces cause conditions to shift once again.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 3061-64 - Highlight on Page 201 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 08:04 PM
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3. Look for an Opening
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 3041-42 - Highlight on Page 200 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 08:02 PM
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The big opportunity is almost never what you would guess, because your best guess is based on the prevailing logic. Surprises are likely to harbor unexpected opportunities?the type that are a far cry from obvious.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 3028-30 - Highlight on Page 199 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 08:01 PM
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In order to harness complex forces you must first to create something for these forces to latch on to. You must actually do something, even if you are not sure where it will lead.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2930-31 - Highlight on Page 193 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 07:53 PM
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Success in a complex, unpredictable world involves not only creating click moments and placing purposeful bets, but also harnessing the random forces that affect our lives, organizations, and, sometimes, even entire nations.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2926-27 - Highlight on Page 193 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 07:52 PM
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Just as you cannot engineer a revolution in the Middle East with only a well-directed slap on the face or jump-start the next eBay by selling Pez dispensers, you cannot plan for the exact click moments that will make all the difference for your career or your organization. But that does not mean that we cannot harness these types of complex forces.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2886-88 - Highlight on Page 190 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 07:49 PM
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The wild complexity of the human mind and the interactions between people make it almost impossible to understand what is required to initiate or harness the complex forces swirling around our world. We could take the exact same actions under seemingly similar conditions, but still get completely separate outcomes.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2845-47 - Highlight on Page 188 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 07:45 PM
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There is a third type of complex force, which I call a self-reinforcing loop, and I think it?s the most interesting of them all. Self-reinforcing loops are situations where past success continually reinforces future success. The initial success can sometimes be very, very small?just enough for other people to notice it?but this small initial win makes it more likely to become increasingly successful.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2753-56 - Highlight on Page 182 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 01:44 PM
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The second type of complex force is what might be called a cascade. A cascade is an action that has consequences that spread far beyond anything predicted or expected, like the rings on the surface of water. The initial action can be very, very small, but its effects seem to take on a life of their own and propagate throughout society.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2698-2701 - Highlight on Page 179 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 01:42 PM
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Complexity is inherent in the interconnected web of relationships that make up the world in which we live and work. Its dynamic nature is what makes complexity so valuable and interesting. Form a new connection and your options and opportunities change.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2652-54 - Highlight on Page 176 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 01:40 PM
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When we make purposeful bets we view the world less like a machine working according to the laws of cause and effect and more like a game of chance. You can try a new approach or idea?and it may work or it may not. It is impossible to know with any certainty because we?re rolling the dice anew every time and exposing ourselves to the effects of randomness.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2644-47 - Highlight on Page 175 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 01:39 PM
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Sometimes events play out in a straightforward way, exactly according to plan. There is a simple cause-and-effect transaction: we act, and our actions bring the result we expect.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2630-31 - Highlight on Page 175 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 01:38 PM
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Making many small, purposeful bets, fueled by passion and calibrated by affordable loss, is the second out of three ways to channel the randomness in this world; and we have already explored click moments. But there is a third way that holds even deeper lessons about what we must do in order to capture the randomness around us. This third way suggests that the true power of placing a purposeful bet lies not simply in learning if the bet might work in our favor, but in the unexpected, complex forces that follow placing it.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2600-2603 - Highlight on Page 172 | Added on Tuesday, September 18, 2012, 01:23 PM
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It is critical, then, for organizations to screen an idea?s criteria based on the passion of the people involved. That is the best way to understand if they will have the wherewithal to keep placing many bets.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2577-78 - Highlight on Page 171 | Added on Tuesday, September 18, 2012, 01:21 PM
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The idea that passion is such an incredibly strong criteria for success frequently appears to be lost on organizations hoping to achieve greatness. Passion is a topic to which we are hesitant to grant a lot of credence.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2573-74 - Highlight on Page 171 | Added on Tuesday, September 18, 2012, 01:20 PM
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If you are driven by an intrinsic motivation such as passion, you have a better chance of producing creative work than if you are driven by external factors.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2553-54 - Highlight on Page 169 | Added on Tuesday, September 18, 2012, 01:19 PM
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many bets, each of them small and affordable. But what can sustain such an approach? Being wrong, again and again, is incredibly taxing. Even if we know that it ?is not failure, it is learning? those words can seem trite and clichéd when it has been a while since something good happened. It is easy to say that we should place bet after bet, but when we don?t have the luxury of knowing if we are right, we can start to lose faith in what we are doing. Over time our willingness to place many bets may dissipate, and eventually we give up.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2543-47 - Highlight on Page 169 | Added on Tuesday, September 18, 2012, 01:18 PM
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5. Use Passion as Fuel
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2529 - Highlight on Page 168 | Added on Tuesday, September 18, 2012, 01:16 PM
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4. Calculate Affordable Loss, Not ROI
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2471-72 - Highlight on Page 164 | Added on Friday, September 14, 2012, 10:44 PM
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If you cannot fail, you cannot learn,?
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2448 - Highlight on Page 163 | Added on Friday, September 14, 2012, 10:41 PM
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3. Take the Smallest Executable Step
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2430 - Highlight on Page 162 | Added on Friday, September 14, 2012, 10:40 PM
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Because we can make far more of them, small purposeful bets maximize our chances of having something random and unpredictable happen.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2395 - Highlight on Page 160 | Added on Friday, September 14, 2012, 10:37 PM
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2. Minimize the Size of the Bets
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2373 - Highlight on Page 159 | Added on Friday, September 14, 2012, 10:34 PM
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1. Place Many Bets If you only have a certain chance to succeed when you place a purposeful bet, it follows that the more bets you place, the greater the chance for you to succeed.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2318-20 - Highlight on Page 155 | Added on Friday, September 14, 2012, 10:30 PM
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five major tactics we can employ in order to lace together a successful string of purposeful bets.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2317 - Highlight on Page 155 | Added on Friday, September 14, 2012, 10:29 PM
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can?t affect our chances of success?is supported by research in other fields, such as science.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2255-56 - Highlight on Page 149 | Added on Friday, September 14, 2012, 10:22 PM
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This idea, that almost no amount of planning or dedicated resources will greatly affect our chances of success, is extraordinarily counterintuitive, but it is the best way to understand how the size of a particular bet seems not to be correlated with its level of success.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2243-45 - Highlight on Page 148 | Added on Friday, September 14, 2012, 10:21 PM
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There is a concept in psychology called risk homeostasis. It refers to the idea that humans have a degree of risk that they find acceptable and strive to live their lives at that level. So if risk decreases in one area of life?such as the appearance of an automatic chute-release system for skydivers?we tend to adjust our behavior to increase risks elsewhere?just
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2203-6 - Highlight on Page 146 | Added on Friday, September 14, 2012, 08:43 PM
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In a casino your best move is not to play at all. The house always wins over the long term.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2131 - Highlight on Page 141 | Added on Friday, September 14, 2012, 08:36 PM
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But in the hyper-adaptive world such logic will place us right alongside everyone else who follows that same prevailing path, and we will be left in the dust by someone who does something entirely different?something even deep analysis could never have uncovered.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2104-6 - Highlight on Page 140 | Added on Friday, September 14, 2012, 08:23 PM
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We want to believe that deep analysis, if done well, can almost guarantee a sure thing.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2101 - Highlight on Page 140 | Added on Friday, September 14, 2012, 08:21 PM
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Life, in other words, does not just turn on unexpected click moments, it can also be seen as a sequence of bets, some riskier than others.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2083-84 - Highlight on Page 139 | Added on Friday, September 14, 2012, 08:20 PM
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A click moment represents a sudden opportunity, a turning point that can push us in a new, unpredictable, and random direction. These moments are powerful because they allow us to stumble upon ideas that are not obvious or logical?ideas that may enable us to outwit our competitors.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2074-76 - Highlight on Page 138 | Added on Friday, September 14, 2012, 08:19 PM
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Actively rejecting the predictable insight leaves you nowhere else to go except making unpredictable, random connections.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2021 - Highlight on Page 133 | Added on Friday, September 14, 2012, 08:14 PM
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Sometimes a direct approach to increasing randomness is required. While you may think you have a logical plan or course of action, you will open yourself up to more unpredictable click moments if you actually reject the predictable path.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2006-8 - Highlight on Page 132 | Added on Friday, September 14, 2012, 08:13 PM
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research proves that following curiosity becomes much harder as we get older?not because our opportunities change, but because we do. ?People in their teens and twenties tend to be more open because they are still discovering who they are,? says Todd Kashdan, a psychologist at George Mason University and author of Curious? ?As we get older we become a lot more crystallized in our thinking. We create rigid rules and eliminate the chances to change all the time.?
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 1999-2002 - Highlight on Page 131 | Added on Friday, September 14, 2012, 08:12 PM
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