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The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

Frans Johansson
we are truly reluctant to actively court randomness in our lives. We have created a society in which we are taught the great virtues of planning and predictability. Increasingly, the world will not let us, yet increasingly, success comes unexpectedly. How do we reconcile these two facts?that we hate randomness, and yet need it to succeed? Create a focused plan to court randomness.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 3250-53 - Highlight on Page 214 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 08:15 PM
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If we find something that works, particularly something that seems to be swept up by complex forces, we need to double down. In this context, doubling down means that you invest time, money, reputation, or other resources into the project with the expectation that it will not only continue to be successful but in fact go big. You are, in other words, finally making some sort of prediction.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 3125-28 - Highlight on Page 205 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 08:08 PM
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5. Double Down
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 3125 - Highlight on Page 205 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 08:07 PM
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4. Spot Momentum and Intensity
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 3077 - Highlight on Page 202 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 08:05 PM
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Because it is impossible to fully control the events that occur around us, we must use complex forces to our advantage. The constant reshuffling of actions, desires, and consequences causes windows of opportunity to open and close unexpectedly. These windows provide a pathway to breakthrough success. They may not be open for long, however, so we need to be prepared to make a quick decision before complex forces cause conditions to shift once again.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 3061-64 - Highlight on Page 201 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 08:04 PM
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3. Look for an Opening
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 3041-42 - Highlight on Page 200 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 08:02 PM
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The big opportunity is almost never what you would guess, because your best guess is based on the prevailing logic. Surprises are likely to harbor unexpected opportunities?the type that are a far cry from obvious.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 3028-30 - Highlight on Page 199 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 08:01 PM
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In order to harness complex forces you must first to create something for these forces to latch on to. You must actually do something, even if you are not sure where it will lead.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2930-31 - Highlight on Page 193 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 07:53 PM
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Success in a complex, unpredictable world involves not only creating click moments and placing purposeful bets, but also harnessing the random forces that affect our lives, organizations, and, sometimes, even entire nations.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2926-27 - Highlight on Page 193 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 07:52 PM
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Just as you cannot engineer a revolution in the Middle East with only a well-directed slap on the face or jump-start the next eBay by selling Pez dispensers, you cannot plan for the exact click moments that will make all the difference for your career or your organization. But that does not mean that we cannot harness these types of complex forces.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2886-88 - Highlight on Page 190 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 07:49 PM
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The wild complexity of the human mind and the interactions between people make it almost impossible to understand what is required to initiate or harness the complex forces swirling around our world. We could take the exact same actions under seemingly similar conditions, but still get completely separate outcomes.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2845-47 - Highlight on Page 188 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 07:45 PM
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There is a third type of complex force, which I call a self-reinforcing loop, and I think it?s the most interesting of them all. Self-reinforcing loops are situations where past success continually reinforces future success. The initial success can sometimes be very, very small?just enough for other people to notice it?but this small initial win makes it more likely to become increasingly successful.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2753-56 - Highlight on Page 182 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 01:44 PM
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The second type of complex force is what might be called a cascade. A cascade is an action that has consequences that spread far beyond anything predicted or expected, like the rings on the surface of water. The initial action can be very, very small, but its effects seem to take on a life of their own and propagate throughout society.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2698-2701 - Highlight on Page 179 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 01:42 PM
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Complexity is inherent in the interconnected web of relationships that make up the world in which we live and work. Its dynamic nature is what makes complexity so valuable and interesting. Form a new connection and your options and opportunities change.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2652-54 - Highlight on Page 176 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 01:40 PM
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When we make purposeful bets we view the world less like a machine working according to the laws of cause and effect and more like a game of chance. You can try a new approach or idea?and it may work or it may not. It is impossible to know with any certainty because we?re rolling the dice anew every time and exposing ourselves to the effects of randomness.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2644-47 - Highlight on Page 175 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 01:39 PM
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Sometimes events play out in a straightforward way, exactly according to plan. There is a simple cause-and-effect transaction: we act, and our actions bring the result we expect.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2630-31 - Highlight on Page 175 | Added on Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 01:38 PM
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Making many small, purposeful bets, fueled by passion and calibrated by affordable loss, is the second out of three ways to channel the randomness in this world; and we have already explored click moments. But there is a third way that holds even deeper lessons about what we must do in order to capture the randomness around us. This third way suggests that the true power of placing a purposeful bet lies not simply in learning if the bet might work in our favor, but in the unexpected, complex forces that follow placing it.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2600-2603 - Highlight on Page 172 | Added on Tuesday, September 18, 2012, 01:23 PM
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It is critical, then, for organizations to screen an idea?s criteria based on the passion of the people involved. That is the best way to understand if they will have the wherewithal to keep placing many bets.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2577-78 - Highlight on Page 171 | Added on Tuesday, September 18, 2012, 01:21 PM
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The idea that passion is such an incredibly strong criteria for success frequently appears to be lost on organizations hoping to achieve greatness. Passion is a topic to which we are hesitant to grant a lot of credence.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2573-74 - Highlight on Page 171 | Added on Tuesday, September 18, 2012, 01:20 PM
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If you are driven by an intrinsic motivation such as passion, you have a better chance of producing creative work than if you are driven by external factors.
The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World - Frans Johansson Loc. 2553-54 - Highlight on Page 169 | Added on Tuesday, September 18, 2012, 01:19 PM
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