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38002: The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction - Silver, Nate

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As Nassim Nicholas Taleb detailed in The Black Swan and as Fama also discussed in his thesis, the movement of stock prices does not follow a gentle bell-curve distribution. Instead, stock-price movements are characterized by very occasional but very large swings up or down. The distribution of stock-market crashes can also be modeled fairly well by a power-law distribution, which is the same function that governs the frequency of earthquakes.

The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction by Silver, Nate
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