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37992: The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction - Silver, Nate

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Contrast this with a sport like tennis, where the structure of the game is such that even modest differences in skill level manifest themselves very quickly. The very best players in the world, like Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, win only about 55 percent of the points they play?barely more than half. However, hundreds of points are played over the course of a single match, while baseball players might get just four or five at-bats. It would be silly to conclude that Nadal is better at tennis than Josh Hamilton is at baseball. But Nadal almost always wins while Hamilton has plenty of nights when he goes 0-for-4. In tennis, you reach the long run much more quickly.

The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction by Silver, Nate
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